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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so quickly into the term.

First, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his typical competitors for the award have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a top-flight footballer has historically scored from the number and quality of opportunities he's received.

This isn't a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the English top division so far this campaign from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is getting so many more good opportunities to score than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than any other player in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted over double the amount goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is shown by examining the number and quality of scoring situations that attackers have encountered in the English first division so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, twelve additional compared to any other player.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more open-play attempts at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - thanks to a several close-range conversions against the Hammers and Seagulls.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the start of last season.

In short, the scoring situations he has had in this campaign have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so powerfully is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League season the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the remaining ten footballers combined so far.

Whether because of injuries - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the Continental scoring award that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is far more competitive at this opening period because two elite attackers have likewise begun in great form, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players despite not attempting any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best goal-scorers in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.